CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-01-04T18:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36254/-1
CME Note: Fast partial halo seen generally to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 quickly leaving the SOHO C2 field of view, seemingly associated with an eruption from near the vicinity of Active Region 3939 (S17W58) and associated long duration C7.6-class flare. Quickly moving field lines off the west limb and bright post eruptive arcades are observed in GOES SUVI 284/304. Associated with solar energetic particle events at SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A. | ARRIVAL NOTE: A very weak arrival/glancing blow signature detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1, mainly characterized by an increase in solar wind speed from ~500 km/s to 630 km/s, accompanied by a slight increase in B-total and temperature, as well as an initial very slight increase in density followed by a minor drop in density. The B-field components at first display rapid fluctuation and corresponding slight increase in density to about 4.5cc, possibly indicating a small pileup, followed by a minor decrease in density to about 2cc and notably smoother rotation in the B-field components starting after 2025-01-07T12:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-01-07T04:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-01-07T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2025 Jan 05 1410 UTC #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection directed to the south-west was first detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery from 18:54 UTC January 05. This is associated with the long duration C7.6 flare that occurred between SIDC Sunspot group 351 (NOAA Active Region 3939) and some new flux emergence to the north-east of it. The partial halo CME had a speed of over 1000 km/s and initial analysis suggests it will have an Earth directed component, with a possible glancing blow arrival at Earth from early on January 07. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium #Lead Time: 16.22 hour(s)
Difference: 0.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2025-01-06T11:47Z
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